Leland, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

843
FXUS62 KILM 151922
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
322 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures near record levels are expected
through late week. A weak cold front will move through Saturday
night which could then return back north into or through the
area toward mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Little in the way of convection expected through Friday under mostly
clear/partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures for the season. Lows
tonight will fall to the upper 60s to lower 70s with highs Friday
away from the beaches in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Above normal temps w/ record high temps possible Saturday
*Isolated damaging winds and/or large hail possible Saturday
aftn/eve, especially in NC

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: A mostly zonal upper flow is expected with an inland
surface trough giving way to a pretty weak cold front likely passing
through Sat night. Limited moisture and forcing should preclude
widespread rainfall but a few showers/storms are possible during the
aftn/eve. There looks to be quite a bit of instability/shear for any
storms to tap into so can`t rule out a few damaging wind gusts
and/or some large hail, mainly in NC. Temps should be the big story
though as they will be well above normal, especially Saturday when
they could reach record levels in the lower to mid 90s (see Climate
section below for details).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Above normal temps through the period
*Mainly dry through at least Tue
*No significant severe storm/flood risk until possibly Wed

Confidence:
*Moderate to High through Tue
*Low to Moderate Tue night through Thu

Details: Zonal to weak ridging pattern aloft should give way to more
troughing late in the period although confidence is low regarding
the timing/strength of the trough and associated surface frontal
system. The previous front that had pushed south of the area over
the weekend should push back north toward mid week ahead of the
aforementioned frontal system developing farther to the west. Thus,
it should remain fairly dry through at least Tue before rain chances
increase although for now we are being fairly conservative given the
uncertainty. Temps should stay above normal until possibly as early
as Wed when they could fall back closer or even below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. There may be
isolated convection this afternoon, mainly northern areas but little
to no impacts to terminals expected.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Expect S to SW winds 10 to 15 KT with higher gusts
and seas of 3 to 4 FT.

Friday night through Tuesday...Moderate to high confidence this
period. A weak cold front should move through Sat night with a
marginal Small Craft Advisory possible for gusts to around 25 kt Sat
aftn/eve prior to the frontal passage. Otherwise, a fairly weak
pressure gradient is expected through the period w/ no headlines
anticipated as seas stay mostly 4 ft or less.

&&

.CLIMATE...
High temperature records may be challenged Friday and Saturday
as anomalously warm air overspreads the region ahead of a cold
front. Record highs for our four climate sites are as follows:

For Friday, May 16th...
Wilmington, NC:      94F (1915)
Lumberton, NC:       96F (1962, 1941)
Florence, SC:        93F (2022)
N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 91F (1941)

Saturday, May 17th...
Wilmington, NC:      92F (1960, 1990)
Lumberton, NC:       96F (1941)
Florence, SC:        93F (1977)
N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 92F (1941)

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...31
MARINE...RJB/31
CLIMATE...